The NFL is back and we have coverage for every game, handing out free top NFL picks and odds analysis as always. We were able to hit big wins in the first three weeks, and Week 4 has some juicy lines for us to take on for parlay combinations. We have a couple of juicy line-busting parlays to line your pockets with.
Midwest Madness
After successfully 'Picking The Lock' in Week 3 (Browns - 7), Jim Cramer's go-to source for all things NFL betting 'Jimmy From Anywhere' is back for Week 4 with his Pick The Lock, best bet for the. Welcome to our NFL best bets section where we outline our NFL best bets for today’s games. With up to 16 NFL games a week, and up to 14 on a Sunday, be sure to check out our NFL Picks homepage for all of our remaining NFL Picks, or head to the NFL Prop Bets page for the week’s top NFL Prop Bets plays. Check out the Pickswise Super HUB for all things Super Bowl 55 including our best Super.
Colts vs. Bears / Saints vs. Lions
The first parlay we’re going to attack sees two modest lines for clearly better teams hitting the road. While it’s difficult to trust certain teams on the road in cooler weather, there’s certain coaching mismatches that must be trusted when it comes to betting. These two games fit the criteria perfectly.
The Colts have a clearly better overall team than the Bears even as Nick Foles takes over for bust Mitchell Trubisky. The two-point line is proper respect for the Colts and the revitalized Philip Rivers, but I see value here because I don’t foresee Frank Reich getting outcoached by Matt Nagy. The totality of the situation looks like a good play for the Colts.
Then we see Sean Payton against Matt Patricia in a massive mismatch. Alvin Kamara has been unstoppable in recent games and there’s not a single defender capable of slowing him on the Lions defense. The Lions are still a freefall candidate even after their shocking win against Arizona last week.
Fears of Drew Brees struggling on the road aren’t quite as large because the game is inside. The Lions’ offense can be troublesome now that Adrian Peterson has taken control of the backfield, but the Saints should be one-touchdown better even on the road considering their roster quality.
Parlay:
NFC Contenders
Seahawks vs. Dolphins / Browns vs. Cowboys
It’s scary to bet on West Coast teams coming East for an early game, but my goodness the Seahawks’ offense makes it hard to resist taking them against a bad Miami team. Sure, the Dolphins took care of business last week against the fellow lowly Jaguars, but don’t be confused: this Dolphins team is far off from real contention due to their lack of playmakers.
The Seahawks’ secondary is banged up and hasn’t played as well as their talent indicates they should, so this game will likely be right around the 6.5 spread. The Seahawks should win by more as Russell Wilson tries to keep up with Patrick Mahomes’ MVP bid.
The other game to pair with it is a fascinating matchup between fan bases that talk a lot of trash but have underachieving teams. Both Cleveland and Dallas have talented rosters that should be in the playoffs but there’s a sense of uneasiness every week for both franchises even with new coaches. Is this the week both play up to their competition and come out with a key victory?
I think we know enough about Baker Mayfield and the Browns to say he’ll likely not play well against a good team based on his past struggles. At least Dak Prescott plays well in big games, and that’ll be the difference as they play at home.
Parlay:
Destroy Bad Teams
Ravens vs. Washington / Giants vs. Rams
Taking two-score lines is a scary proposition but some teams match up in a way where we can’t ignore the favorite. That’s the case this week as Baltimore and the Los Angeles Rams will destroy their competition to embarrassing levels. The rosters are heavily skewed one way and the stylistic matchup couldn’t be much worse for neither Washington nor the Giants.
Washington loves to throw despite Dwayne Haskins’ lack of surrounding cast and struggles within the pocket, and the Ravens are coming off a humiliating performance where the secondary was exploited. The Ravens will be ballhawking and motivated to bounce back in a big way. Also there’s the Lamar Jackson revenge game we’re sure to see as he failed to break 100 yards passing against the Chiefs.
The Rams will also have a field day against the Giants thanks to schematic advantages. The Giants are one of the worst play-action defending teams in the league and they’re facing a top-three offense in that category. Jared Goff has been excellent this year, and his surrounding receivers are a nightmare matchup for the barren secondary of the Giants.
It’ll be a long day as Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd try to force more mistakes out of Daniel Jones.
Parlay:
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Boy, it sure does feel good to get a huge win. I was dangerously close to a massive win in week one, took a step back in week two, but hit on my NFL parlay picks in week three.
My lineup of four picks (Over in Falcons vs. Bears and Buccaneers/49ers/Chiefs to win) smashed, with Kansas City’s sweet +165 underdog price tag pushing this thing over the top.
Nailing NFL parlays isn’t easy, but three of those picks felt really safe. In the end, they all were, as a $100 bet would have brought back over $800.
The goal is to keep the good times rolling, so let’s get cracking on my favorite parlay picks for NFL week 4.
Drew Brees looked borderline washed last week, but let’s look at the positives. He still carved up the Packers with the underneath game, and with Michael Thomas out with an ankle issue, I’m not sure we can fully slam the guy just yet.
The Saints still have a very dangerous offense on paper, and now their backs are against the wall when they head to Detroit to battle the Lions in week four.
Michael Thomas could return this week, too.
Saints’ WR Michael Thomas (ankle) is eyeing a Week 4 return:https://t.co/kO5Tn65fn1— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 27, 2020
Detroit got a big road win over Arizona last week, but something has to break here, and logic suggests siding with the still superior Saints. I love New Orleans to win this week to get things back on track, while calming their fan base.
You probably can’t go too hard at them as a singular bet thanks to their -210 price tag at most NFL betting websites, but as part of a week four NFL parlay, they fit in nicely.
Arizona Cardinals to Win (-180)
Speaking of the Cardinals, they should be 3-0 right now. Kyler Murray had some uncharacteristic mistakes, as he tossed three picks and pretty much cost Arizona the game.
The Cardinals have a nice chance to redeem themselves instantly in week four, when they battle a weak Panthers team that will still be without Christian McCaffrey.
Arizona is the better team here, and I highly doubt they’re about to waste a hot 2-0 start by dropping two games in a row they’re supposed to win at this point.
I talked up Kenyan Drake in my week four NFL DFS picks, and I think he plays a big part of a balanced offense that chews Carolina up and spits them out.
Much like the Saints, you’re not racing to put all your cash on AZ at their -180 price, but as part of a week four NFL parlay, they should be of good use.
Week four appears to be the week of bounce-back opportunity. We can keep the fun times rolling with the Cowboys, who fell short against Seattle, but are back home to host the Browns.
The Cleveland hype train is roaring again after two straight wins, and I’ll admit it’d be hilarious if Dallas choked here. It’s the Cowboys, so yeah, it’s not impossible.
That said, the Cowboys are immensely talented, and their two losses this year came against good NFC West teams (we think, at least). They’re back home against a team that is still more hype than substance, and Dallas will be desperate to avoid a 1-3 start.
I love the Cowboys as a straight-up winner here, but again, you’re not chasing a -225 price. It’s just a fairly safe bet to add to this week’s NFL parlay picks.
Chicago Bears to Win (+125)
Okay, we’ve got three relatively safe plays to stack up, but at some point we need to get a bit riskier to pump up the value of this week four parlay.
It starts with Chicago, who are quietly very appealing underdogs at home against the Colts. Yeah, the same Colts that lost to Jacksonville in week one, and slapped around two other teams that are a combined 0-6.
Obviously, I don’t exactly trust the Colts just yet. A big part of that is an aging Philip Rivers, who showed his turnover tendencies in week one, and could regress again on the road against a talented Bears defense.
On top of that, the Bears could rally around Nick Foles, who saved them from failure last week, and is officially the guy moving forward.
Bears announce Nick Foles will officially replace Mitchell Trubisky as their starting QB @brgridironpic.twitter.com/i9E8TU2zQc— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 28, 2020
I always like targeting home underdogs, and the Bears at +125 are no exception.
I’m pushing my luck here, to be sure. That said, I also like the value with Jacksonville, who understandably also make my week four NFL upset picks this week.
Why? Because Joe Burrow and the Bengals don’t know how to win just yet. And they’re still the Bengals.
But really, as good as Burrow has looked at times, he and his Bengals haven’t shown us they can be trusted, or that they’re consistent. This would certainly be a good opportunity for them to get their first win of the year, but their defense remains bad, and they couldn’t close the deal last week.
Cincy ended their week three overtime battle in a tie, and that’s all of the disappointing. The Bengals could be deflated as they return home, while the Jags hope to bounce back and get to 2-2 after two straight losses.
In a game that is an arguable toss-up, I trust Minshew Magic a little more than Burrow and Cincinnati. The price is nice as a stand-alone upset pick, but it pushes my week four NFL parlay picks over the top.
Top Week 4 NFL Parlay Bet
- Saints to Win (-210)
- Cardinals to Win (-180)
- Cowboys to Win (-225)
- Bears to Win (+125)
- Jaguars to Win (+150)
Normally I’d like to target a game total or some spreads, but this just isn’t the week for it. The best games for doing that have insanely high game totals, and yet those games should see a lot of scoring.
And the games with the best point spreads are dealing with really bad teams. There is just too much middle ground here, so it’s best to avoid these situations.
Instead, I’m just picking winners that I think look like safe plays, as well as two underdogs. My NFL parlay picks turned $100 into over $800 last week, but if all these teams win in week four, you can turn $100 into $1,765.74 over at Bovada.
Nfl Week 4 Predictions Best Bets
I’ve detailed why I like each individual wager for the week, and I also like stringing them all together. If you don’t want that much risk, cut the parlay down as needed, or just attack these as individual bets.
Best Teaser Bets Nfl Week 4
Whatever you do, I wish you luck with your week four NFL wagers.